Analysis of China's real estate prices and macroeconomy based on evolutionary co-spectral method

Juan Li, Xuemin Chen

Abstract


Purpose: This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between the real estate market and the macroeconomic environment of China by use of dynamic coherence function based on co-spectral analysis.

Design/methodology/approach: Through a theoretical perspective, the dynamic interrelationship among economic variables at different time intervals (both long and short terms) is analyzed.

Findings: The empirical results show that China’s real estate market features a high coherence with the change of the long-term interest rate, employment rate and money supply, while there is a moderate coherence between the real estate market and the inflation rate and economic growth rate, and the coherence between the short-term rate of interest and the real estate market is the lowest.

Research implications: Previous researches have some shortcomings. They do not consider the dependence between nonlinear series, but the latter is crucial to avoid the deviation of results. In this paper, we proposed a new method of experience to overcome these shortcomings.

Originality/value: The paper provides a reasonable explanation accordingly to different coherences between the real estate market and the macroeconomic variables.


Keywords


Real estate; Macroeconomy; Dynamic coherence function; Monetary policy

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3926/jiem.1419


Licencia de Creative Commons 

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, 2008-2019

Online ISSN: 2013-0953; Print ISSN: 2013-8423; Online DL: B-28744-2008

Publisher: OmniaScience